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Numéro 165 - Juillet 2021

Perspectives économiques 2021-2022

Gautier Attanasi, Arno Baurin, Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy, Guillaume Dallemagne, Nathan Lachapelle, Alexandre Ounnas, Mathilde Pourtois, Mathieu Sauvenier

RE165 P1Après avoir connu un coup d’arrêt au dernier trimestre 2020, la reprise de l’économie belge apparaît à nouveau bien enclenchée depuis le début de l’année en cours. Entre décembre 2020 et mars 2021, l’économie belge a progressé de 1 % et, selon nos prévisions, sa progression fut de 1,3 % au deuxième trimestre.

La croissance de l’économie belge devrait encore se renforcer durant la seconde partie de l’année. L’environnement économique international est à nouveau dynamique, tandis que la couverture vaccinale a fortement augmenté en Belgique, autorisant la réouverture de la plupart des activités économiques qui, il y a peu, étaient encore sous le coup des restrictions sanitaires. Dans ce contexte, la confiance des ménages et des entreprises belges a connu un rebond spectaculaire au cours des derniers mois. Pour autant que la situation sanitaire demeure sous contrôle, le redressement de l’économie belge se poursuivrait en 2022, mais à un rythme plus modéré.

Selon ces perspectives, l’économie belge progresserait de 5,8 % en 2021 et de 3,6 % en 2022. Elle retrouverait son niveau d’avant crise au dernier trimestre 2021 mais, fin 2022, le niveau du PIB serait encore inférieur d’environ 1,5 % par rapport au niveau auquel il se serait situé sans l’éclatement de la crise économique et sanitaire. Des créations d’emplois significatives sont attendues sur la période de projection mais l’amélioration du chômage serait plus modeste.

Résumé des prévisions pour la Belgique

  • L'économie belge devrait croître de 5,8% en 2021 et 3,6% en 2022.
  • L'emploi augmenterait d'environ 32.000 unités en 2021 et 18.000 unités en 2022.
  • Le nombre de demandeurs d'emploi diminuerait de 10.000 unités en 2021, mais il augmenterait de 9.000 unités en 2022.
  • L'inflation générale des prix à la consommation s'élèverait de 1,6% en 2021 et 2,0% en 2022.
  • Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques atteindrait 6,8% en 2021 et 3,8% en 2022.

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