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Numéro 159 - Janvier 2021

Perspectives économiques 2021

Gautier Attanasi, Arno Baurin, Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy, Guillaume Dallemagne, Nathan Lachapelle, Alexandre Ounnas, Mathilde Pourtois, Mathieu Sauvenier

Pages de RE159.pdfEn forte récession durant la première partie de l’année écoulée, l’économie belge a connu un rebond spectaculaire au troisième trimestre 2020, qui n’a cependant permis de récupérer que 2/3 des pertes de production enregistrées durant les deux trimestres précédents.

Alors que dans notre étude de conjoncture d’il y a trois mois, nous anticipions le prolongement de la reprise économique au dernier trimestre 2020, le rebond de l’épidémie et le rétablissement d’un confinement partiel de l’économie ont balayé cette perspective. Il est ainsi plus que probable que l’économie belge se soit à nouveau contractée durant les trois derniers mois de 2020.

En ce qui concerne les perspectives économiques pour 2021, il est ici fait l’hypothèse que les campagnes de vaccination qui ont débuté contribueront à contrôler la maladie. Il est dès lors envisagé le retour progressif de conditions normales d’activité au cours des prochains mois.

Selon ce scénario, l’activité économique belge devrait retrouver une pente d’évolution positive à partir du premier trimestre 2021. Sa progression risque cependant d’être faible durant une bonne partie de l’année. D’une part, il est probable que des mesures de restriction de l’activité économique resteront en place encore plusieurs mois afin de maintenir l’épidémie sous contrôle. D’autre part, malgré les aides mises en place par les pouvoirs publics, la situation financière des ménages et des entreprises s’est dégradée en 2020.

Ainsi, alors qu’il est attendu une contraction de l’économie belge de près de 7 % en 2020, la croissance économique prévue pour 2021 serait limitée à 3,4 % en base annuelle. Cette projection implique que, fin 2021, le niveau du PIB belge serait encore inférieur - d’environ 2 % - à ce qu’il était avant la crise.

Résumé des prévisions pour la Belgique
• L’économie belge devrait croître de 3,4 % en 2021.
• L’emploi diminuerait d’environ 19.000 unités en 2021.
• Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi augmenterait de 52.600 unités en 2021.
• L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait à 1,4 % en 2021.
• Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques atteindrait 7,1 % en 2021.

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