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Numéro 140 - Juillet 2018

Perspectives économiques 2018-2019

Gautier Attanasi, Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy, Sébastien Fontenay, Alexandre Ounnas

RE140L’amélioration du marché du travail et du pouvoir d’achat des ménages, l’optimisme des entreprises, ainsi que la vigueur de l’économie mondiale, devraient soutenir une nouvelle hausse significative de l’activité économique belge sur la période de projection. Néanmoins, en raison de résultats conjoncturels moins positifs que prévu pour le début de l’année, notre prévision de la croissance annuelle de la Belgique pour 2018 a été revue à la baisse. Elle est à présent de 1,6 %, contre 1,9 % il y a trois mois. En 2019, la croissance en Belgique serait à nouveau de 1,6 %.

En résumé , nos prévisions macroéconomiques pour 2018-2019 sont les suivantes :

  • L’économie belge devrait croître de 1,6 % en 2018 et 2019.
  • L’emploi augmenterait, en termes nets, d’environ 85.000 unités sur la période 2018-2019.
  • Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi diminuerait d’environ 31.000 unités sur la période 2018-2019.
  • L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation baisserait à 1,9 % en 2018 et 1,7 % en 2019.
  • Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques serait de 0,9 % du PIB en 2018 et de 1,5 % en 2019.

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