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Numéro 64 - Novembre 2008

Quelles leçons tirer de la crise financière ?

couve verteDans ce numéro de Regards économiques, nous montrons comment la crise des prêts hypothécaires (crise des subprimes) aux Etats-Unis a ébranlé l’ensemble du système financier international.

L’octroi des créances à des ménages à faible revenu s’est déroulé dans un paysage fortement modifié depuis la fin des années 80. Le secteur financier devenu fortement endetté, encouragé en cela par des taux d’intérêt bas, un immense accroissement de liquidités sur les marchés et une réglementation parfois trop laxiste, s’est en outre souvent appuyé sur des montage financiers complexes, que ce soit via des produits dérivés ou des opérations de titrisation, pour améliorer sa rentabilité.

L’introduction de techniques mathématiques sophistiquées pour mesurer leurs risques a probablement aussi donné aux financiers un faux sentiment de sécurité, diminuant en cela l’aversion au risque.

Enfin, de nouveaux acteurs, les hedge funds, agissant en-dehors de toute réglementation, ont eu tendance à spéculer fortement sur les marchés au cours des 20 dernières années exacerbant toute tendance fondamentale sur les marchés financiers.

La crise des subprimes démarre dans le courant de l’année 2006 et se déroule tout au long de l’année 2007 pour atteindre son paroxysme à l’automne 2008 où de nombreuses banques tombent en faillite ou doivent faire appel à leur Etat respectif pour renflouer leurs fonds propres.

Différentes leçons peuvent être tirées de cette crise (qui n’a pas encore connu son épilogue) :

  1. il faut revoir la réglementation bancaire que ce soit sur le niveau d’endettement des banques (que l’on doit limiter) ou sur leurs ratios de liquidité. Trop de banques n’ont pas suivi des règles de gestion bilantaire élémentaires et de simple bon sens : il faut donc les limiter dans les excès qu’elles peuvent commettre;
  2. au-delà d’une meilleure coordination internationale entre les contrôleurs prudentiels des institutions financières, la manière de travailler de ceux-ci doit être revue. Ils se sont trop souvent tenus très éloignés de la réalité du terrain ou laissés apaiser par les discours lénifiant de certains banquiers;
  3. il faut absolument mettre en place un contrôle des hedges funds et, à tout le moins, vis-à-vis de ceux suffisamment grands que pour faire courir un risque systémique au monde financier;
  4. la composition des conseils d’administration de certaines banques a trop souvent été inadéquate : ne faudrait-il pas imposer des spécialistes de la gestion des risques sur ces conseils ?;
  5. certaines règles comptables doivent être revues, en particulier celles qui concernent l’évaluation des instruments s’échangeant sur des marchés très peu liquides. Ces règles sont actuellement trop rigides et poussent les banques à afficher des pertes qui ne se matérialiseront peut-être pas;
  6. il faut revoir la législation en matière de conglomérats financiers : le rapprochement de banques de détail, de banques d’affaires, d’assurance et de gestionnaire d’actifs au sein d’une même enseigne ne sert pas au mieux les intérêts des clients et peut faire courir des risques similaires à ceux que le monde a couru pendant la crise des années 30;
  7. les agences de rating (ou agences de notation), qui portent une lourde part de responsabilité dans la crise actuelle, doivent devenir plus transparentes dans leurs méthodes de travail et leur système de rémunération devrait être réexaminé.

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