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Numéro 184 - Mai 2024

Que rapporterait une taxe sur le patrimoine en Belgique ?

Martial Toniotti

Cover Regards 184Et si on taxait le patrimoine ? Cette question revient à chaque échéance électorale. La proposition a en effet l’air alléchante, dans la mesure où un impôt sur la fortune apporterait une manne fiscale supplémentaire à l’Etat fédéral qui pourrait l’utiliser pour engager de nouvelles dépenses et/ou réduire certaines taxes.

Dans ce nouveau numéro de Regards économiques, nous présentons une nouvelle estimation du revenu fiscal que pourrait rapporter à l’Etat belge une taxe sur le patrimoine des ménages belges les plus fortunés. L’estimation obtenue se situe aux alentours de 10 milliards d’€.

Cette estimation est établie pour la proposition dite « 1-2-3 », qui consiste en une taxe de 1 % du patrimoine à partir de 1 million d’€, de 2 % à partir de 2 millions d’€ et de 3 % au-delà, en comptant sur une exemption pour la maison familiale jusqu’à 1 million d’€ par ménage.

L’estimation effectuée s’appuie sur des données récentes et fiables du patrimoine des ménages belges, à savoir les comptes distributionnels de patrimoine (« Distributional Wealth Accounts ») publiés au début de cette année par la Banque Nationale de Belgique et la Banque centrale européenne.

Notre estimation prend par ailleurs en considération le manque à gagner pour l’État en raison d’un risque d’évasion fiscale ou d’autres réactions comportementales qu’un impôt sur le patrimoine pourrait provoquer.

Notre méthode d’estimation est similaire à celle utilisée par le Bureau Fédéral du Plan dans une étude publiée très récemment (Bastin, T. & Van Camp, G., Calcul de l’impact budgétaire d’un impôt sur les grands patrimoines avant effets macroéconomiques. Bureau Fédéral du Plan, 2024). Pour la même proposition « 1-2-3 », le revenu fiscal estimé par cette étude s’élève à 4,7 milliards d’€ par an. La différence par rapport à notre estimation provient principalement de la différence dans les données utilisées.

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On en parle dans la presse...

Le Soir, 23.05.2024 : Taxer les plus riches pourrait rapporter 10 milliards
L’Echo, 23.05.2024 : Une taxe sur le patrimoine des Belges rapporterait environ 10 milliards d’euros
Trends Tendances, 23.05.2024 : Une taxation du capital rapporterait dix milliards en Belgique
Le Vif, 23.05.2024 : 1,2,3… patrimoine! 247.000 ménages concernés par une taxe pour rapporter 10 milliards
RTBF, L'heure des comptes, 23.05.2024 :  Et si l'on instaurait en Belgique une taxe sur le patrimoine?
Canal Z, 24.05.2024, Taxer les riches rapporterait 13 milliards à l’État
L'Echo, 25.05.2024, Plus de 400 entrepreneurs s'opposent à une taxe sur le patrimoine
Classic 21, info, 27.05.2024, Pourquoi la taxe belge sur les millionnaires et le patrimoine ne verra jamais le jour ?
De Standaard, 30.05.2024, Spaar de rijken? Populaire riedel zonder wetenschappelijke onderbouw
Le Soir, 01.06.2024, Carta Academica : Mais bon sang ! Pourquoi taxer le patrimoine ?
L'Echo,01.06.2024, Impôt sur la fortune ou la valse des chiffres

 

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