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Numéro 183 - Mars 2024

Soutenabilité sociale des pensions : compenser une pénibilité et longévité inégale

Laurent Collot, Jean Hindriks

RE183Un enjeu fondamental de notre système de pension consiste à garantir aux retraités un niveau de vie adéquat dans un contexte où le vieillissement de la population nous oblige à reporter toujours plus loin les âges d’accès à la pension. Comment encourager les gens à travailler plus longtemps sans pénaliser ceux qui ne le peuvent pas, dans un contexte où le nombre de personnes en maladie-invalidité ne cesse d’augmenter ? Réduire la pension pour ceux qui quittent prématurément le marché du travail est injuste puisque ce sont souvent les travailleurs à faible revenu et qualification qui sont concernés. Récompenser par un bonus ceux qui peuvent continuer jusqu’à l’âge de la pension, comme proposé dans la réforme de juillet 2023, est aussi injuste pour ceux qui ne peuvent pas travailler jusqu’à cet âge. C’est d’autant plus injuste que ces personnes peu qualifiées qui quittent le marché du travail plus tôt ont, en moyenne, commencé leur carrière plus tôt, sont moins riches, sont en moins bonne santé, et ont une espérance de vie plus courte. Concrètement, 1/4 des personnes du 1er quintile de revenu (qui représente les 20% de la population ayant le revenu le plus faible) décèdent avant 65 ans contre 1/20 des personnes du 5e quintile (qui représente les 20% de la population ayant le revenu le plus élevé).

La pénibilité du travail est d’autant plus cruciale que la réforme des pensions a reculé progressivement l'âge de la pension à 66 ans en 2025 et à 67 ans en 2030 avec la volonté d’introduire une exception pour les personnes qui effectuent un métier pénible. Cette adaptation ne s’est pas concrétisée, et nous avons aujourd’hui une demande pour ramener l’âge de la pension à 65 ans selon la rhétorique bien connue : “à 67 ans tous les métiers sont pénibles”. Ce retour en arrière est aussi excessif car nous vivons en moyenne toutes et tous plus longtemps.

Dans son avis complémentaire de mars 2015, le Conseil Académique des Pensions suggérait un âge flexible de pension : “celui qui a un métier pénible doit, grâce à la flexibilité générale dans le système, avoir la possibilité de prendre sa pension plus tôt que ceux qui n’ont pas exercé de métier pénible, avec un montant de pension qui soit malgré tout comparable”. Notre proposition va dans ce sens.

Notre argument est que les métiers sont effectivement de pénibilité variable et que les métiers pénibles sont plus souvent concentrés chez les personnes moins qualifiées avec un faible salaire. Ces personnes commencent à travailler plus tôt et sont plus vite “usées” par le travail (fatigue physique, stress et insécurité). Elles devraient raisonnablement pouvoir prendre leur pension plus tôt sans perte de pension.

Nous proposons donc un mécanisme concret qui permet de réaliser une double correction: (i) permettre à ceux qui ont commencé leur carrière plus tôt de partir plus tôt et (ii) permettre à ceux qui exercent un métier “pénible” de faire une carrière plus courte.

Concernant la définition des métiers pénibles, notre approche consiste à octroyer une enveloppe budgétaire fixe pour financer la pénibilité qui soit décroissante avec le quintile (niveau) de salaire et à laisser ensuite les partenaires sociaux décider de la distribution de cette enveloppe fixe au sein de chaque quintile de salaire.

Nous chiffrons le coût budgétaire de notre compensation en fonction de l’enveloppe et de sa répartition que nous finançons par un ajustement des pensions les plus élevées. Le système est donc “auto-porté”. Un résultat surprenant de notre analyse est que la prise en compte de la pénibilité des carrières, limitée aux travailleurs à bas salaires, n’impose pas un fardeau insurmontable pour les travailleurs mieux rémunérés. À titre d’illustration, notre scénario de référence implique une perte de pension de l’ordre de 1% pour le 4e quintile et de 4,7% pour le 5e quintile tout en accordant respectivement 3, 2 et 1 années d’anticipation aux 1er, 2e et 3e quintile de salaire.

Le simulateur « Pension et Pénibilité » de Laurent Collot et Jean Hindriks est disponible ici : simulateur

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