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Numéro 182 - Janvier 2024

Perspectives économiques 2024

Aurélie Bertrand, Vincent Bodart, Margaux Clarr, Florian De Bundel, Alain Guillet, Nathan Lachapelle, Vincent Notte, Leïla Van Keirsbilck

RE182Malgré le fort durcissement des conditions monétaire et financière, l’économie belge a progressé de manière significative durant les premiers trimestres de 2023. Selon nos prévisions, sa progression devrait se poursuivre au dernier trimestre 2023 et en 2024. Son rythme de croissance devrait toutefois ralentir quelque peu au cours des prochains trimestres. D’une part, plusieurs facteurs contraires à la croissance demeurent actuellement présents : la conjoncture industrielle demeure maussade en Belgique et au niveau mondial, l’économie allemande est proche de la récession, des problèmes internes contraignent la croissance économique chinoise, les conditions financières sont toujours très restrictives, les créations d’emplois sont moins nombreuses et les risques géopolitiques sont élevés. D’autre part, il semble que l’expansion économique belge soit soutenue depuis plusieurs trimestres par certains éléments particuliers, dont l’impact devrait être moins positif à l’avenir. Ainsi, au cours des trimestres passés, la consommation privée a probablement été soutenue par l’épargne excédentaire que les ménages ont accumulé durant la pandémie. On peut raisonnablement penser que cet effet sera moins actif à l’avenir.

En 2023, la croissance de l’économie belge devrait être de 1,5% en base annuelle moyenne. Selon nos prévisions, elle faiblirait à 1,1% en 2024.

Malgré l’affaiblissement de la croissance économique, la situation du marché continuera à s’améliorer en 2024. L’emploi devrait ainsi augmenter de 47.000 personnes en 2024, ce qui entrainera une très légère diminution du nombre de personnes au chômage.

En décembre 2023, l’inflation générale était de 1,4%. Elle devrait se relever légèrement en 2024 où elle atteindrait 2,0% en fin d’année.

Résumé des prévisions:

• L’économie belge devrait croître de 1,1% en 2024.
• L’emploi augmenterait d’environ 47.000 unités en 2024.
• Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi diminuerait de 2.000 unités en 2024.
• L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait en moyenne à 2,2% en 2024.
• Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques atteindrait 3,9% en 2024.

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On en parle dans la presse...

  • L'Echo, 12.01.2024 : "Prévisions - L’indice pivot ne devrait être franchi qu’une seule fois en 2024 selon l’Ires"
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