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Numéro 163 - Avril 2021

Prévision économique "en temps réel"

Vincent Bodart, Alexandre Ounnas

Parmi les principaux indicateurs macroéconomiques, le chiffre de croissance trimestrielle du PIB permet d’évaluer l’évolution récente de la situation économique générale d’un pays. Pour cette raison, ce chiffre constitue une source d’information précieuse pour guider les choix des acteurs économiques, notamment en ce qui concerne les décisions de politiques budgétaires et monétaires.

Il s’avère cependant que les données de croissance trimestrielle du PIB ne sont disponibles qu’avec un certain délai. Dans le cas de la Belgique, une estimation préliminaire (dite estimation «flash») de la croissance économique pour un trimestre donné est publiée par l’Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN) environ 30 jours après la fin de ce trimestre. Un chiffre plus définitif, basé sur des données plus tangibles, est ensuite publié 60 jours après la fin du trimestre.

Du fait de ces délais de publication, des méthodes ont été développées dans le but de produire un estimateur de la croissance du PIB en temps réel, appelé dans le jargon estimateur «nowcasting», qui soit suffisamment précis pour être utile à la prise de décision des acteurs économiques. Ces méthodes de «prévision en temps réel» sont aujourd’hui largement utilisées pour produire des estimations très précoces du PIB.

Ce numéro de Regards économiques présente ces méthodes, et en donne une application pour la zone euro, la Belgique et la Wallonie.

Une application concrète concerne la prévision de croissance du PIB pour le premier trimestre 2021. Ainsi, sur base des statistiques disponibles à la fin mars, nous obtenons une prévision de la croissance trimestrielle du PIB de + 0,2 % pour la zone euro, de + 1,0 % pour la Belgique et de + 0,7 % pour la Wallonie.

Dans le cas de la Wallonie, nous produisons à partir de ces méthodes des données trimestrielles de croissance du PIB, lesquelles n’existent pas pour l’instant. Ainsi, pour 2020, la croissance économique de la Wallonie est estimée à - 4,1 % au 1er trimestre, 12,6 % au 2ème trimestre, + 9,1 % au 3ème trimestre et + 0,1 % au 4ème trimestre. Pour la Belgique, les données de croissance correspondantes, lesquelles sont déjà disponibles, sont de - 3,4 % au 1er trimestre, - 11,8 % au 2ème trimestre, 11,6 % au 3ème trimestre et - 0,2 % au 4ème trimestre. La croissance annuelle de la Wallonie pour 2020 est estimée à - 8,8 %, un chiffre inférieur à celui publié pour la Belgique (- 6,3 %).

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