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Numéro 135 - Novembre 2017

Transition énergétique et (dé)croissance économique

Elise Dupont, Jean-François Fagnart, Marc Germain, Hervé Jeanmart, Louis Possoz

RE135Ce numéro spécial de Regards économiques croise les regards d’ingénieurs et d’économistes pour étudier les possibles impacts de la transition énergétique sur la croissance économique. Cette transition peut être définie comme la transformation des modes actuels de production et de consommation de l'énergie. L’angle d’analyse ne concerne pas un pays ou une région particulière mais se situe à un niveau global.

Depuis quelques années, certains auteurs ont émis des doutes sur la possibilité de poursuivre sans encombre, à un niveau global, la croissance économique pendant la transition énergétique (TE). Le présent numéro de Regards économiques approfondit certains de leurs arguments à travers deux contributions.

La première contribution (par les ingénieurs Elise Dupont, Hervé Jeanmart et Louis Possoz) concentre son attention sur les évolutions attendues du taux de retour énergétique (TRE) des sources éolienne et solaire, ainsi que sur leur potentiel. Les auteurs mettent en évidence un effet «localisation» selon lequel l’expansion de ces énergies impliquera de les installer sur des sites de moins en moins favorables, produisant de moins en moins d’énergie pour la même capacité installée. Une TE vers un monde 100 % renouvelable conduira alors à un TRE du système énergétique global sensiblement plus faible qu’aujourd’hui et ce, malgré le progrès technique dont les auteurs soulignent par ailleurs que le potentiel est limité.

Les possibles conséquences macroéconomiques d’une telle TE sont analysées dans la deuxième contribution (par les économistes Jean-François Fagnart et Marc Germain). La baisse du TRE global accompagnant la TE se traduit par l’exacerbation des besoins en capital du secteur énergétique, avec un possible effet «d’éviction» du secteur final au niveau de l’affectation des biens d’investissement. Cet effet pèse négativement sur la croissance économique. S’il est suffisamment fort (ce qui dépend des caractéristiques de l’économie), la TE s’accompagne d’une phase de décroissance économique prolongée. Dans le cas contraire, une transition «en douceur» (c’est-à-dire sans décroissance économique) est possible.

Les deux contributions résumées ci-dessus visent avant tout à éveiller la prudence à l’égard d’un certain «optimisme technologique» suggérant que la TE pourrait se révéler sans douleur pour la croissance économique grâce au seul développement tous azimuts des énergies renouvelables. Le message implicite qui en découle est que pour favoriser une transition «en douceur», des changements de comportements à grande échelle sont nécessaires (par exemple, en matière de transport).

Ce qui précède pose la question des conséquences de tels changements de comportements sur l’économie, et en particulier sur le PIB et la croissance. Une autre question concerne le rôle que les pouvoirs publics devraient jouer dans la stimulation de ces changements. A notre connaissance, il s’agit là de questions qui restent largement ouvertes.

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On en parle dans la presse...

  • Le Soir, page 15, 30.11.2017 : "Le 100 % vert entraînera une perte de confort", interview de Hervé Jeanmart par Xavier Counasse.
  • RTBF La Première, Matin Première, 30.11.2017 : "Le renouvelable inhibe la croissance économique", interview de Jean-François Fagnart par Michel Gassée.
  • Trends/Tendances, page 14, 30.11.2017 : "La transition énergétique aura un impact négatif sur la croissance mondiale", interview de Jean-François Fagnart par Christophe De Caevel.
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