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Numéro 97 - Juin 2012

Perspectives économiques 2012 - 2013

Vincent Bodart, Jean-François Carpantier, Vanessa Lutgen, Joël Machado, Catherine Smith

97Il y a trois mois, en présentant nos prévisions économiques trimestrielles pour 2012, nous soulignions avec un certain optimisme l’amélioration des conditions conjoncturelles constatée au 1er trimestre tant en Belgique qu’au niveau international. Aujourd’hui, ces améliorations semblent sérieusement remises en question et le processus de reprise économique au niveau mondial semble à nouveau s’enrayer. La croissance américaine apparaît à nouveau fragile, l’activité ralentit dans les pays émergents tandis que les problèmes de la dette souveraine et du secteur bancaire dans la zone euro suscitent à nouveau de vives inquiétudes qui font craindre que l’économie mondiale soit confrontée prochainement à une nouvelle crise de confiance comme celle qui avait éclaté l’an passé plus ou moins à la même époque. Dans ce contexte, même en supposant que les pouvoirs publics parviendront à endiguer la crise financière qui secoue la zone euro, les évolutions économiques attendues sur la période de projection restent modestes. Ainsi, en Belgique, la croissance du PIB serait limitée à 0,4 % en 2012 et 1,2 % en 2013.

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