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Numéro 96 - Mai 2012

Quelles leçons tirer de la grande crise financière de notre temps ?

96Partant du constat que toutes les crises financières se ressemblent (endettement excessif, vente panique d’actifs, etc.), je cherche à déterminer ce qui caractérise la crise financière de 2007. Je passe en revue les étapes du développement de la crise, depuis les premiers signaux d’alerte sur le marché du crédit hypothécaire nord-américain jusqu’à la crise des dettes souveraines de l’Eurozone. Je relève quatre leçons majeures qui, selon moi, devraient être attentivement étudiées par tous ceux qui s’intéressent à la gestion des institutions financières majeures, à la définition de nouvelles règles prudentielles pour les banques et à la conception des politiques budgétaires et monétaires.

Leçon 1. L’économie globalisée s’appuie sur un secteur financier qui est lui-même globalisé. La santé de l’ensemble des banques au niveau mondial est profondément liée à l’ensemble du système financier. En particulier, les liens entre les banques et ce que l’on peut appeler le système bancaire parallèle (shadow banking sector) sont très nombreux. Par système bancaire parallèle, on entend notamment les compagnies d’assurances, les fonds de pension, les fonds d’investissement, mais aussi les agences de notation. Les acteurs de ce système parallèle canalisent l’épargne et accomplissent l’intermédiation des fonds au profit de projets d’investissement risqués, et ce, partout dans le monde. Même s’il remplit les mêmes fonctions d’intermédiation que le secteur bancaire régulé, le système bancaire parallèle fonctionne, dans son ensemble, sans réglementation systématique : il est en dehors du système de protection des dépôts et n’a pas accès aux facilités de liquidité fournies par la banque centrale qui est le «prêteur en dernier ressort». Depuis le début de la crise, la part du système parallèle a diminué. Elle reste cependant très importante. En 2010, elle était de 16.000 milliards de $ contre 13.000 milliards de $ pour le secteur réglementé.

Leçon 2. Les techniques de gestion du risque utilisées par les institutions financières assurent une protection effective contre les risques dans des conditions de marché normales, mais ne les prémunissent pas contre des risques extrêmes qui peuvent frapper toutes les institutions financières simultanément. La réaction des institutions à ces évènements extrêmes peut conduire à des ventes d’actifs, ce qui contribue à amplifier les risques.

Leçon 3. Dans un système financier globalisé, une crise systémique (c’est-à-dire susceptible de provoquer un effondrement global du système financier par le biais d’effets-dominos, de faillites en chaîne, etc.) peut donner lieu à des pertes qui excèdent la capacité fiscale d’un pays. C’est un défi majeur pour une régulation bancaire organisée sur une base nationale.

Leçon 4. Le risque systémique peut provenir de décisions décentralisées d’investisseurs et d’institutions financières qui cherchent à réduire les risques qui les affectent directement. Ce processus est souvent nourri par des politiques économiques conduisant les agents privés à adopter des stratégies similaires aggravant le risque systémique.

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